DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATION OF ROAD MAINTENANCE COST IN ANAMBRA STATE

SOURCE:

Faculty: Engineering
Department: Industrial And Production Engineering

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ekwueme, O. G.
Ihueze, C. C.

ABSTRACT:

This study evaluated various models for estimation of road maintenance cost in Anambra State. The computing tools employed in this study include, the general-purpose unconstrained optimization method, general purpose optimization method and the quasi-Newton and conjugate-gradient algorithms, Barzilai-Borwein (BB) Steplengths method, the nonlinear optimization with multi start values method and the spectral projected gradient method for large-scale optimization, time series analysis, curve estimation, the generalized non linear model, bivariate regression analysis, response surface analysis, the generalized nonlinear method (gnm), Pareto chart analysis , correlation analysis and descriptive analysis. The researcher designed a linear and nonlinear maintenance cost model for estimating the maintenance cost of roads in Anambra State. The linear maintenance cost model was optimized using the general-purpose unconstrained optimization method, general purpose optimization method and the quasi-Newton and conjugate-gradient algorithms and the three methods employed obtained even annual minimum cost of road maintenance of N52,416,579.36. The nonlinear maintenance cost model was optimized using the Barzilai-Borwein (BB) Steplengths method, the nonlinear optimization with multi start values method and the spectral projected gradient method for large-scale optimization and the three methods employed obtained even annual minimum cost of road maintenance of N2697251.47. Findings of the study revealed that the linear maintenance cost model performed better than the nonlinear maintenance model in estimating the observed maintenance cost of roads over the time period. Further findings revealed that unavailability of Street lights, Bustop/PD, Traffic Congestion, traffic circle and road direction constitute 80% of factors affecting road maintenance in Anambra State. It was found that Road divider, Road direction, Traffic Circle, Drainage, Walkways, street light, traffic congestion and Bustop/ PD has inverse relationship with Road condition in Anambra State. Finding showed that the maintenance cost of roads has an increasing trend over the observed period and it was forecasted in the year 2018 all things being equal the maintenance cost of roads in Anambra State is expected to be about N237,226,028. Also, It was found that length of road has significant impact on maintenance cost of road per kilometre.